To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report identifies key issues arising from Budget 2016: 1) the presentation of the fiscal plan; 2) the Government’s adjustment to the private sector economic assumptions underlying its fiscal plan; and, 3) Finance Canada’s estimates of the economic impacts of budget measures.
This note presents detailed analysis of the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2016-17, which supports the first two appropriation bills that will seek Parliaments approval for almost $90 billion.
This note presents detailed analysis of the third supplement to the Government’s Main Estimates for the 2015-16 fiscal year.
PBO estimates that the average annual cost to the Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangements (DFAA) due to weather events over the next five years is $902 million. Three-quarters of this cost is due to floods. The average annual cost for the previous five and 10 years had been $850 million $489 respectively. Over the past 10 years, weather events on the Prairies have been responsible for 81% of the DFAA costs.
Total government expenditures for the first half of 2015-16 were $124.7 billion, an increase of 5.5 per cent over the same period last year.
This report reviews the evolution of household indebtedness in Canada and assesses prospects for household financial vulnerability over the medium term.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer’s (PBO) legislative mandate includes research and analysis regarding the Government’s Estimates. The Supplementary Estimates (B) 2015-16 request an additional $810 million of voted appropriations from Parliament, and outlines an additional $3 million in statutory spending.
PBO’s assessment is that the Government’s outlook for the economy and federal budget over the medium term is optimistic. Based on forecast comparisons and forecast revisions, PBO believes that there is downside risk to the Government’s medium-term outlook for the budgetary balance in the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.
The cost of a combat mission continues beyond the point at which the Canadian Armed Forces have withdrawn from the operational theatre. Arguably the most important post-combat cost is that of caring for Canada’s ill and injured Veterans. The intent of this analysis is to ensure that these post-combat costs come as no surprise to parliamentarians. This report does not incorporate any changes proposed by the new government.
The Canadian labour market has generally improved over the past year but there is still underutilization of labour in some regions, sectors and among some groups of workers.
PBO projects a sluggish recovery for the Canadian economy as it adjusts to lower commodity prices and rebalances—shifting away from consumer spending and housing toward exports and business investment. Based on Budget 2015 measures only, PBO projects annual deficits averaging $4.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) over 2016-17 to 2020-21. Federal debt is projected to fall from 31 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 26.2 per cent by 2020-21.
|Budgetary balance ($ billions)||1.2||-3.0||-4.7||-5.0||-4.6||-4.2|
|Federal debt ratio (% of GDP)||30.8||29.9||28.8||27.9||27.1||26.2|
The PBO is proud to present our newly designed website and template format.
This report examines the influence of program performance on budgetary changes during the recent period of fiscal consolidation, from 2010-11 to 2013-14 [PDF]
The Honourable Scott Brison (Kings‐Hants) and Mr. Nathan Cullen (Skeena‐Bulkley Valley) have submitted requests that the PBO provide an update of the Government’s fiscal projections in Budget 2015 using the Bank of Canada’s outlook in its July Monetary Policy Report. PBO will update its own Economic and Fiscal Outlook in the fall. [PDF]
This report provides an assessment of the long-term sustainability of government finances for three government sub-sectors: the federal government; subnational governments consisting of provinces, territories, local, and aboriginal governments; and, the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans. [PDF]
House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (April 2015) - Statement by Jean-Denis Fréchette (PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance including post-Budget 2015 revisions to forecast