Report Archive

November 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook

PBO projects a sluggish recovery for the Canadian economy as it adjusts to lower commodity prices and rebalances—shifting away from consumer spending and housing toward exports and business investment. Based on Budget 2015 measures only, PBO projects annual deficits averaging $4.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) over 2016-17 to 2020-21. Federal debt is projected to fall from 31 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 26.2 per cent by 2020-21.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2016 -2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 -2021
Budgetary balance ($ billions) 1.2 -3.0 -4.7 -5.0 -4.6 -4.2
Federal debt ratio (% of GDP) 30.8 29.9 28.8 27.9 27.1 26.2

New Website!

The PBO is proud to present our newly designed website and template format.

Updated Analysis of Performance Budgeting During Recent Fiscal Consolidation

This report examines the influence of program performance on budgetary changes during the recent period of fiscal consolidation, from 2010-11 to 2013-14   [PDF]

An update of the Budget 2015 fiscal outlook

The Honourable Scott Brison (Kings‐Hants) and Mr. Nathan Cullen (Skeena‐Bulkley Valley) have submitted requests that the PBO provide an update of the Government’s fiscal projections in Budget 2015 using the Bank of Canada’s outlook in its July Monetary Policy Report. PBO will update its own Economic and Fiscal Outlook in the fall.     [PDF]

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2015

This report provides an assessment of the long-term sustainability of government finances for three government sub-sectors: the federal government; subnational governments consisting of provinces, territories, local, and aboriginal governments; and, the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans.    [PDF]

Supplementary Estimates (A) 2015-16

This note presents detailed analysis of the first supplement to the federal government’s Main Estimates for the 2015-16 fiscal year.     [PDF]

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (April 2015) - Statement by Jean-Denis Fréchette (PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (April 2015) - Statement by Jean-Denis Fréchette (PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance including post-Budget 2015 revisions to forecast

Update of PBO’s Tax-Free Savings Account Analysis

TFSA fiscal and distributional effects were examined by the PBO in a February 2015 report. This analysis updates those past PBO estimates for proposed Budget 2015 changes.    [PDF]
 

Expenditure Monitor: 2014-15 Q3

This note analyses implementation of the Government’s spending plan presented in Budget 2014, over the nine months of the year.    [PDF]

Pre-budget Outlook

Projections presented in this report include only fiscal measures that have been announced prior to Budget 2015. PBO will update its economic and fiscal projections for new measures in the 2015 budget and provide related analysis in a future report. Projections presented in this report are based on data up to and including April 10, 2015.    [PDF]

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (November 2014) - Opening Statement by Mostafa Askari (Assistant PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (Novembre 2014) - Opening Statement by Mostafa Askari (Assistant PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (November 2014) - Opening Statement by Jean-Denis Fréchette (PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance (November 2014) - Opening Statement by Jean-Denis Fréchette (PBO) to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance

Statement by Sonia L’Heureux, Parliamentary Librarian

I welcome the appointment of Jean-Denis Fréchette as Parliamentary Budget Officer. Mr. Fréchette brings a strong understanding of the work of parliamentarians and the support they expect in addressing economic and fiscal matters considered by Parliament. I look forward to working with Mr. Fréchette in ensuring that parliamentarians receive the support they expect, as per the legislative requirements of the Parliament of Canada Act.

Demystifying the Mandate of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

This paper was prepared by Tolga Yalkin and Benjamin Segel-Brown for a parliamentary seminar which took place on 29 May 2014

OECD Council Recommendation on Principles for Independent Fiscal Institutions - Approved

OECD Council Recommendation on Principles for Independent Fiscal Institutions - Approved

IR0113 - Compliance Chart Revised July 25, 2013 to Include Responses Received After July 19, 2013

IR0113 - Compliance Chart Revised July 25, 2013 to Include Responses Received After July 19, 2013

Statement by Sonia L’Heureux, Parliamentary Budget Officer (interim)

In April 2013, I sought information necessary to undertake analysis into the 2012 federal budget. That analysis was requested by a parliamentarian pursuant to s. 79.2 of the Parliament of Canada Act. The information necessary for this purpose was requested from government departments and agencies. The first deadline for providing it came and went, and the majority of departments and agencies did not comply with the totality of my request. I informed the Speaker of the Senate and Speaker of the House of Commons. They asked me to write to the non-compliant departments and agencies again, requesting them to provide the information. That second deadline of July 19, 2013 came and went, and I have yet to be provided with all the information that I need to undertake the requested analysis. If and when I am provided with it, I look forward to performing the analysis and, thereby, discharging my legislative mandate.

IR0113 - Compliance Chart as of July 19, 2013

IR0113 - Complaince Chart as of July 19, 2013

The Integrated Monitoring Database (IMD) has been updated to include expenditure data for the last quarter of 2012-13

Expenditure data for the last quarter of 2012-13 has been uploaded to the Integrated Monitoring Database (IMD).

While this represents all expenditures between April 2012 and March 2013, users should note that the Government will make subsequent adjustments prior to the tabling of Public Accounts sometime in autumn 2013.  As such, any financial figures should be viewed as preliminary.