All Reports

Legalized Cannabis: Fiscal Considerations

This report provides a forecast of the economic parameters in the cannabis market, including the number of users, aggregate consumption and product prices.  It also provides an overview of potential revenues that could arise from legal cannabis sales, based on existing and projected market data, as well as the government’s stated objectives.  

Labour Market Assessment 2016

PBO finds that most labour market indicators remain fairly close to their trend levels, except for average hours worked which is below trend. Our analysis suggests that, at the national level, the labour market is currently operating below its sustainable capacity as the demographic transition takes hold.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook October 2016

In response to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Expenditure Monitor 2016-2017 Q1

This note analyses the implementation of the Government’s spending plan presented in Budget 2016 for the first three months of the fiscal year.

Fiscal Analysis of Federal Children’s Benefits

This report examines the net fiscal impact of implementing the new system of children’s benefits, and simultaneously repealing the federal portions of the old system.  The report also provides a 10-year projection comparing the new system and the old, as well as a distributional analysis for the 2017-18 fiscal year.

Budget 2016 Tax and Transfer Calculator

The PBO has developed an interactive online tool that estimates the household fiscal impact of some changes to federal taxes and transfers that were introduced in Budget 2016 and Bill C-2.

Cost Estimate of Tax Credit for Confederation Bridge Tolls

This report, requested by the Honourable Percy Downe, Senator for Prince Edward Island, provides a cost estimate of a proposed non-refundable personal income tax credit for Confederation Bridge tolls paid by local residents, that is, those living on Prince Edward Island.

Cost Estimate for Bill C-261: An Act to amend the Canadian Forces Superannuation Act and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police Superannuation Act (increase of allowance for survivors and children)

This private member’s Bill amends Part IV (Communications with and services to the Public) of the Official Languages Act.

Cost Estimate for Bill S-209: An Act to amend the Official Languages Act (communications with and services to the public)

This private member’s Bill amends Part IV (Communications with and services to the Public) of the Official Languages Act.

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Fiscal Sustaintability Report 2016 – Clarification and Additional Information

In response to the 29 June 2016 commentary “Why Canada’s long-term fiscal prospects are not a hot
mess” by A. Yalnizyan (available at:
term-fiscal-prospects-are-not-a-hot-mess/ ), this blog post provides clarification and additional
information related to our 2016 Fiscal Sustainability Report.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2016

This report extends PBO’s medium-term analysis to assess the fiscal sustainability of Canada’s federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Financial Impacts of Budget 2016 Measures on Selected Families with Children

In response to a request from member for Elgin-Middlesex-London, Mrs. Karen Vecchio, the PBO has prepared estimates of the financial impact of the Budget 2016 measures for the requested eight types of families with children.

Cost Estimate of Bill C-239: An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (Charitable Gifts)

Pursuant to a request from Mr. Pierre-Luc Dusseault, Member of Parliament for Sherbrooke, this note provides a cost estimate of Bill C-239:  An Act to Amend the Income Tax Act (Charitable Benefits).

Cost Estimate of Bill C-241: An Act to Amend the Excise Tax Act (School Authorities)

This note presents an estimate of the fiscal impact of Bill C-241, An Act to amend the Excise Tax Act (school authorities).

Supplementary Estimates (A) 2016-17

This note presents detailed analysis of the first supplement to the Government’s Main Estimates for the 2016-17 fiscal year.

Fiscal Analysis of a Targeted Tax Credit for Taxpayers in the Second Bracket

In response to a request from Senator Larry Smith, Chair of the Standing Senate Committee on National Finance, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) uses four methods to estimate the level of a hypothetical benefit available to taxpayers in the second tax bracket, where the overall cost of these benefits is equivalent in size to the estimated level of revenues generated from introducing a 33.0 per cent tax rate on income over $200,000.

Fiscal and Economic Impacts of Curtailing the Planned Tax Cut for Small Businesses

In response to a request by a Member of Parliament, PBO has prepared estimates of the fiscal and economic impacts of the Budget 2016 decision to maintain the small business tax rate and corresponding effective dividend tax rate at 10.5 per cent.  The rate had been legislated to gradually decrease to 9 per cent under Budget 2015.  

Federal Spending on Postsecondary Education

PBO estimates that in 2013-14, total federal spending on postsecondary education reached $12.3 billion. Taking into account recent Budget 2016 announcements, PBO estimates total federal spending on postsecondary education will exceed $15.7 billion by 2020-21. Over the past ten years, federal postsecondary spending targeted towards human capital formation has disproportionately benefitted wealthier families. This was due to a growing share of federal support provided through the tax system in particular and Registered Education Savings Plans.

Canada’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Developments, Prospects and Reductions

PBO looks at Canada’s commitment at COP21 in Paris and reports on its potential economic impact, both in aggregate and by sector. PBO estimates the reduction in emissions needed to achieve the 2030 target by combining historical trends in intensity of emissions with the PBO’s projection of the economy to 2030. We discuss how major sources of GHG emissions such as cars and trucks will have to be made at least a third more fuel-efficient, as will the electricity generation sector (almost two thirds), and oil & gas extraction (about a quarter), in order to meet the targets. The technologies to achieve those reductions are already available, but deploying them will lead to a mildly slower rate of income growth as cheap sources of energy will have to be replaced by moderately more expensive ones.