All Reports

The Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - A Prospective Analysis

PBO looks at the projected impact on Canada of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Though the agreement is extensive, its impact in aggregate on the Canadian economy is likely to be small in comparison to NAFTA. Nonetheless, for individual sectors the impact could be significant since there are quite a few sectors whose goods currently have tariffs that exceed 10 per cent.

Canada’s trade in services with the European Union will also be affected as a number of non-tariff trade impediments are reduced. Since they are starting from a low level, the dollar change in trade would be relatively small. But as a proportion of existing trade, the change could be notable.

Canada will also extend market exclusivity on existing drugs by about 2 years. This will prevent the entry of cheaper generics into the market, and prolong a stream of royalty and dividend payments to entities outside Canada. It will thus also have a small impact on Canada’s external balance.

PBO remarks to the Standing Committee on Finance

PBO remarks to the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance 

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2017

This report responds to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion that “consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) mandate to provide independent analysis about the state of Canada’s finances and trends in the national economy (as outlined in section 79.2 of the Parliament of Canada Act), the PBO provide an economic and fiscal outlook to the Committee the fourth week of October and April of every calendar year, and be available to appear before the Committee to discuss its findings shortly thereafter.”

Cost Estimate for Bill C-274: An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (transfer of small business or family farm or fishing corporation)

Bill C-274 was a private member’s bill that sought to facilitate the transfer of small businesses or family farms, or fishing operations, between members of the same family, by amending the Income Tax Act (ITA). It would have allowed owners and buyers in the same family to enjoy the same rights and privileges as those for a transaction between non-related individuals.

The Government's Expenditure Plan for 2017-18

This note examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2017-18, which supports the first two appropriation bills that will seek Parliament’s approval for $102 billion.

Supplementary Estimates (C) 2016-17

This note presents detailed analysis of the third supplement to the Government’s Main Estimates for the 2016-17 fiscal year.

PBO remarks to Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities

PBO remarks to the Standing Committee on Transport, Infrastructure and Communities on the New Infrastructure Plan and table on economic and fiscal impact.

PBO remarks to Standing Senate Committee on National Finance

Thank you for inviting me to appear before you to continue our discussion on Canada’s new infrastructure plan.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor 2016-17

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian GDP in 2016 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016-17 based on data released since our October 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Canada’s New Infrastructure Plan: 1st Report to Parliament – Following the Money

This report analyzes the Government’s New Infrastructure Plan (NIP) announced through the 2016 Federal Budget and its 2016 Fall Economic Statement.  This analysis is designed to assist parliamentarians in understanding program outcomes and potential risks to those outcomes.

Corporate Tax Model

The PBO developed a microsimulation model to estimate the fiscal impact of changes to the federal corporate tax system.

Expenditure Monitor 2016-2017 Q2

Government expenditures for the first half of 2016-2017 were $136.5 billion, an increase of 3.7% over the same period last year.  This growth lags the overall increase in budgeted spending (5.6%), owing to delays in implementing the Government’s economic priorities, in particular new infrastructure investments.

The Fiscal Cost of Indexing the Canada Child Benefit

In October of 2016 Bill C-29 A second Act to implement certain provisions of the budget tabled in Parliament on March 22, 2016 and other measures proposed that the Canada Child Benefit be indexed, beginning in 2020.  This will index both the base benefits and the income thresholds to the consumer price index (CPI).

This report provides an update to the report Fiscal Analysis of Federal Children’s Benefits, estimating the cost of indexation if the first year of indexation were to occur in 2020.

Household Formation and the Housing Stock: A Stock-Flow Perspective

This report provides estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada, and also attempts to gauge the degree of balance in the housing sector, both for new housing units and for the overall housing stock.

Federal Spending on Primary and Secondary Education on First Nations Reserves

This report responds to a request of the member for Timmins-James Bay to estimate the costs of First Nations education program spending and to compare these estimates with provincial education spending.

2015-16 Report on the Activities of the Parliamentary Budget Officer

I am pleased to present the third report on the activities of the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer, which covers the 2015-16 fiscal year

This report is a departure from those of prior years because, in addition to covering the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s activities during the past year, it presents a detailed history of the events (legislative or otherwise) that have shaped its operations since its inception.

Considerations for Parliament in Reforming the Business of Supply

This report outlines considerations for parliamentarians regarding the Government’s proposals to reform the Business of Supply.

Supplementary Estimates (B) 2016-17

This note presents detailed analysis of the second supplement to the Government’s Main Estimates for the 2016-17 fiscal year.

Fall Economic Statement 2016: Issues for Parliamentarians

To assist parliamentarians in their pre-budget deliberations, this report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Fall Economic Statement 2016.