All Reports

Fiscal and Distributional Analysis of the Federal Carbon Pricing System (Revised May 23, 2019)

This report provides a fiscal and distributional analysis of implementing a federal carbon pricing system in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. PBO estimates that the federal government will generate $2.63 billion in carbon pricing revenues in 2019-20. The vast majority of revenues ($2.43 billion) will be generated through the fuel charge; the balance, roughly $197 million, will be generated by output-based pricing. Households will largely bear the cost of the pricing system through their consumption of energy used for residential and transport purposes, and carbon charges embodied in non-energy products.  Regions currently using carbon-intensive energy can expect higher costs.  The federal government has stated that all proceeds from the fuel charges will be returned directly to households and particularly affected sectors in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Except for the richest 20%, most households will be better off on a net basis because the amount of the rebate will exceed their average carbon cost.

Cost Estimate for Implementing Structured Intervention Units as set out in Bill C-83 and Related Proposals

Bill C-83 would replace segregation of inmates with structured intervention units (SIUs). SIUs would offer inmates a minimum of two more hours of time out of their cell per day and greater opportunities to participate in correctional interventions. Canada’s 2018 Fall Economic Statement allocated $300 million over six years and $71.7 million ongoing, towards staffing and other resources required to run SIUs. We believe this is an appropriate level of funding for CSC’s expected number of SIUs and associated staffing.

Revisiting the Middle Class Tax Cut

This report provides ex post (after the fact) estimates of the fiscal impact of the middle class tax cut in tax years 2015 and 2016.

Bill C-266: Increasing the duration of parole ineligibility

In February 2016, the Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons requested that the PBO provide a detailed and comprehensive costing analysis of private members bills and motions appearing on the Private Member’s Business Order of Precedence. Bill C-266, which increases parole ineligibility for certain offenders, was placed on the Order of Precedence on 1 November 2018. This report provides an estimate of the cost of implementing Bill C-266.

Projecting the Revenue and Expenses of Canada Student Loans Program

This report provides a description of the PBO model and an estimate of the revenues and expenses associated with the direct loans regime of Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP).   

Infrastructure Update: Investments in Territories

The report examines capital investments made by territories with the objective to identify the incremental impact of federal infrastructure funding on their capital spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18.

Cost Estimate of an Increase in the Duration of Employment Insurance (EI) Sickness Benefits

This report provides a cost estimate for a measure that would extend the duration of employment insurance (EI) sickness benefits from 15 weeks to 50 weeks.

Costing of a 360-hour Eligibility Threshold for Sickness Benefits

This report provides a cost estimate for a measure that would reduce the eligibility threshold necessary to claim sickness benefits from 600 to 360 hours of insurable employment.

 

The impact of the Canada – United States – Mexico Agreement on prescription drug expenditures in Canada

This report estimates the additional pharmacy-dispensed prescription drug expenditures for Canadian consumers that would result from the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). A two-year extension of data protection for biologics will delay the introduction of biosimilars for some expensive drugs. This would likely keep prices higher than they otherwise would have been.

 

PBO’s Comments on Budget 2019

After reviewing the Budget documents, I would like to make a few observations on Budget 2019, tabled in the House of Commons on March 19, 2019.  I hope this will help parliamentarians as they prepare to debate this important document.

PBO Work Plan for 2019-20

Infrastructure Update: Investments in Provinces and Municipalities - Revised: Table 3-1

The report examines infrastructure investments made by provinces and some municipalities with the objective to identify the incremental impact of federal infrastructure funding on provincial and municipal capital investment.

Fiscal Analysis of the Interim F-18 Aircraft

This report presents a fiscal analysis of the Government of Canada’s purchase of 18 used F-18 aircraft from Australia.

The cost differential between three regimes of Veterans Benefits - Update: Get the code

The Government of Canada has had three different regimes for veterans benefits since 2006:  the Pension Act (up to 2006); the Veterans Well-being Act (from 2006 to 2019); and, Pension for Life (which takes effect on April 1, 2019).

Several parliamentarians requested that the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) prepare an estimate of the fiscal cost of each of these regimes over the medium term.

Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline – Financial and Economic Considerations - Update

This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - February 2019

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2018 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2018 19, based on data released since our October 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 8 February 2019.

Supplementary Estimates (B) 2018-19

This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second supplementary estimates for the 2018-19 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $2.5 billion.

Labour Market Assessment 2018: Wage inequality – Update

This note updates selected results from our assessment published in October 2018, incorporating recently released data for the fourth quarter of 2018.

Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline – Economic and Financial Considerations

This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada’s This report provides financial and economic analysis relating to the Government of Canada’s purchase of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.of the Trans Mountain Pipeline, Expansion Project and related assets.

Cost Estimate for Bill C-399 “Fairness for Persons with Disabilities Act”

This report responds to a request of Mr. Tom Kmiec, the member for Calgary Shepard, to estimate the financial cost of Bill C-399, which broadens eligibility for the disability tax credit for persons spending extensive time on therapy to support their vital functions.