Reports

Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada

PBO has developed a modelling approach to estimate the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada. The modelling approach produces a new micro database of high-net-worth families to undertake analytical and costing work. This report describes the approach to constructing the database and showcases its analytical capabilities.

Update on the Investing in Canada Plan

In response to interest from parliamentarians, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) updated its monitoring of the Investing in Canada Plan (IICP). Under the IICP, the Government has committed to spend $187.8 billion over 2016-17 to 2027-28. The PBO solicited data from all 20 departments and agencies responsible for delivering IICP programming. Working with Infrastructure Canada, we compiled a data set of 33,112 entries for projects with $34.9 billion in spending since 2016-17.

Supplementary Estimates (A) 2020-21

The Supplementary Estimates (A) 2020-21 is the first of three planned Supplementary Estimates in 2020-21 and supports the third appropriation bill for the current fiscal year.

Proposed Changes to the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB)

A parliamentarian requested that the PBO cost a proposal modifying the CERB to adopt a phase-out for the benefit of $0.50 for each dollar of employment income above $1,000 per month. Modifications to the CERB program are assumed to be implemented on July 5, 2020.
PBO estimates the cost to modify the CERB program starting July 5, 2020 to be an additional $967 million.

Explaining the Cost Estimate of the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance Program

We previously published an estimate that the cost of the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance Program will be $483 million. This post provides additional detail regarding the calculations underlying that estimate.

Proposed Changes and Extension to the Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB)

A parliamentarian requested that the PBO cost a proposal modifying the CERB to: extend the program to January 2021; expand the eligibility for benefits by an additional 12 weeks (to 28 weeks total); and, adopt a phase-out for the benefit of $0.50 for each dollar of employment income above $1,000 per month.  
The parliamentarian also asked that this modified CERB be compared against another option to extend the existing program over the same time period (to January 2021) and enhancing the benefits duration by the same amount (12 weeks).
Extensions and modifications to the CERB program are assumed to be implemented on June 1, 2020.
PBO estimates the cost of the proposed measure to extend and modify the CERB program to be $64.0 billion from June 1, 2020 to January 31, 2021. 
Compared to a counterfactual scenario where the current CERB program is extended until January 31, 2021, where recipients can receive up to 28 weeks of CERB payments, the modified CERB program costs an additional $6.1 billion.

OGGO - Follow-up analysis to the "Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic"

During the PBO's appearance before the Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates of the House of Commons on May 29, 2020, the Committee requested supplementary details.

NFFN - Follow-up analysis to the "Government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and its economic consequences"

During the PBO's appearance before the Committee on May 26, 2020, the Committee requested supplementary details.

Reporting of Gains and Losses in the Government’s Financial Results

This report responds to the Government’s public consultation, *Proposed Changes to Reporting of Gains and Losses in the Government’s Financial Results*. The report provides the PBO’s comments on changing the way that actuarial gains and losses are reported in the Government's financial results.

Scenario Analysis Update: COVID-19 Pandemic and Oil Price Shocks

This report provides an updated scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent oil market developments. This report incorporates announced federal budgetary measures up to and including 24 April 2020.