Category : Reports

Disability Benefit Processing at Veterans Affairs Canada

This report was prepared at the request of MP Rachel Blaney regarding the service standards of Veterans Affairs Canada (VAC) for processing disability benefit applications.

Personnel Expenditure Analysis Tool

This report summarizes a few of the key insights of the Personnel Expenditure Analysis Tool, PBO’s interactive online tool to explore overall government spending on personnel or focus on single departments.

Federal Support through Major Transfers to Provincial and Territorial Governments

This report examines federal support through major transfers to provincial and territorial governments over 2008-09 to 2018-19.

Public service use of paid leave for reasons related to COVID-19

Kelly McCauley, MP for Edmonton West, requested that the PBO report on costs incurred from the federal Government’s policy of allowing employees to use pay code 699 – paid leave for other reasons for leave related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This report presents the findings from 699 leave data provided by the Treasury Board Secretariat and supplementary data provided by the Canada Revenue Agency.

Economic and Fiscal Snapshot 2020: Issues for Parliamentarians

The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) supports Parliament by providing economic and financial analysis for the purposes of raising the quality of parliamentary debate and promoting greater budget transparency and accountability.

This report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Economic and Fiscal Snapshot published on 8 July 2020.

Costing a Guaranteed Basic Income During the COVID Pandemic

This report responds to a request from Senator Yuen Pau Woo to estimate the post-COVID cost of aguaranteed basic income (GBI) program, using parameters set out in Ontario’s basic income pilotproject. PBO presents three estimates based on scenarios that phase-out the benefit by $0.50, $0.25 and $0.15 for each dollar of employment income for the last six months of 2020-21. Also, this reportconsiders the provincial breakdown of the GBI cost. The total estimated gross cost of the defined GBI would range between $47.5 billion and $98.1 billion based on the three scenarios for the six-monthperiod from October 2020 to March 2021.  In addition, the report provides an estimate of the federaland provincial programs for low-income individuals and families, including many non-refundable andrefundable tax credits that could be replaced by the GBI program. PBO estimates the potential offsetsfrom repealing these measures would be just over $15 billion for the same period.

Provincial Government Liquidity Outlook

Economic uncertainties generated by the public health response to COVID 19 and record low oil prices have disrupted financial markets. 
Beginning in March, there was an abrupt global flight to cash, which began to constrain credit access for provincial governments, among other Canadian issuers of debt. Soon after, the Bank of Canada intervened to directly support liquidity in provincial governments’ funding markets by buying short-term and long-term debt, and by purchasing provincial debt on a temporary basis using term repurchase operations.
The purpose of this report is to address questions from several parliamentarians about potential uptake of the new Bank of Canada (the Bank) provincial liquidity-support programs.
The Bank’s liquidity support programs are designed to address temporary financing challenges. Overall, PBO estimates that provincial governments will have liquidity requirements of at least $195 billion by the end of 2021. This accounts for $67 billion in COVID-related provincial spending, $119 billion of provincial debt that must be refinanced in 2020 or 2021, and $9 billion in planned deficits (pre-COVID-19).
On 31 May, the Bank held $59 billion in provincial debt.
Relative to their provincial economies, the governments of Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador have the largest estimated liquidity needs until 2021.
Long-term fiscal sustainability for provincial governments is determined by structural factors and would not be meaningfully affected by these liquidity-support programs.

Scenario Analysis Update: COVID-19 Pandemic and Oil Price Shocks

This report provides an updated scenario analysis to help parliamentarians gauge potential economic and fiscal implications of the COVID-19 pandemic and recent oil market developments.
This report incorporates announced federal budgetary measures up to and including 12 June 2020.

Estimating the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada

PBO has developed a modelling approach to estimate the top tail of the family wealth distribution in Canada. The modelling approach produces a new micro database of high-net-worth families to undertake analytical and costing work. This report describes the approach to constructing the database and showcases its analytical capabilities.

Update on the Investing in Canada Plan

In response to interest from parliamentarians, the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) updated its monitoring of the Investing in Canada Plan (IICP). Under the IICP, the Government has committed to spend $187.8 billion over 2016-17 to 2027-28. The PBO solicited data from all 20 departments and agencies responsible for delivering IICP programming. Working with Infrastructure Canada, we compiled a data set of 33,112 entries for projects with $34.9 billion in spending since 2016-17.