Category : National Finance

Economic and Fiscal Outlook October 2016

In response to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Fiscal Sustaintability Report 2016 – Clarification and Additional Information

In response to the 29 June 2016 commentary “Why Canada’s long-term fiscal prospects are not a hot
mess” by A. Yalnizyan (available at:
term-fiscal-prospects-are-not-a-hot-mess/ ), this blog post provides clarification and additional
information related to our 2016 Fiscal Sustainability Report.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2016

This report extends PBO’s medium-term analysis to assess the fiscal sustainability of Canada’s federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Financial Impacts of Budget 2016 Measures on Selected Families with Children

In response to a request from member for Elgin-Middlesex-London, Mrs. Karen Vecchio, the PBO has prepared estimates of the financial impact of the Budget 2016 measures for the requested eight types of families with children.

Cost Estimate of Bill C-239: An Act to amend the Income Tax Act (Charitable Gifts)

Pursuant to a request from Mr. Pierre-Luc Dusseault, Member of Parliament for Sherbrooke, this note provides a cost estimate of Bill C-239:  An Act to Amend the Income Tax Act (Charitable Benefits).

Expenditure Monitor 2015-2016 Q3

This note analyses the implementation of the Government’s spending plan presented in Budget 2015 for the first nine months of the year.

Updated Table - Budget 2016: Key Issues for Parliamentarians

PBO has updated Summary Table 2 (Table 1-2) presented in its 6 April 2016 report Budget 2016:  Key Issues for Parliamentarians as a result of receiving requested information from Finance Canada.

Budget 2016: Key Issues for Parliamentarians

To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report identifies key issues arising from Budget 2016:  1) the presentation of the fiscal plan; 2) the Government’s adjustment to the private sector economic assumptions underlying its fiscal plan; and, 3) Finance Canada’s estimates of the economic impacts of budget measures.

Expenditure Monitor 2015-2016 Q2

Total government expenditures for the first half of 2015-16 were $124.7 billion, an increase of 5.5 per cent over the same period last year.

The Fiscal and Distributional Impact of Changes to the Federal Personal Income Tax Regime

PBO estimates that the introduction of the new 33 per cent personal income tax (PIT) rate and the reduction of the
second tax rate to 20.5 per cent will reduce PIT revenues by $0.4 billion in 2015-16 and about $1.7 billion annually
on average from 2016-17 to 2020-21. Reducing the first personal income tax rate from 15.0 to 14.0 per cent would
reduce PIT revenue by $0.9 billion in 2015-16 and about $4.1 billion on average annually from 2016-17 to 2020-21.
Introducing the new tax bracket for taxable income over $200,000 at a rate of 33.0 per cent will primarily affect the
top 1.4 percent of taxpayers. The second bracket change will affect the top 30 percent of taxpayers, while a
reduction in the first bracket would affect the top 60 percent of taxpayers.

Household Indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability

This report reviews the evolution of household indebtedness in Canada and assesses prospects for household financial vulnerability over the medium term.

An Assessment of the Government’s Fiscal Outlook

PBO’s assessment is that the Government’s outlook for the economy and federal budget over the medium term is optimistic. Based on forecast comparisons and forecast revisions, PBO believes that there is downside risk to the Government’s medium-term outlook for the budgetary balance in the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Why Does the Government Lapse Money and Why Does It Matter?

In 2013-14, the Government’s actual spending was $9.3 billion lower than budgeted; it corresponded
to lower-than-estimated spending on programs such as veterans’ benefits, national defence and capital 
infrastructure projects.

Budget 2015 anticipates that the amount of unspent money will fall over the next five years. New PBO
analysis suggests that this may not be the case. If so, it is expected that this would result in lower-than-
projected program spending, creating additional fiscal flexibility.

Updated Analysis of Performance Budgeting During Recent Fiscal Consolidation

This report examines the influence of program performance on budgetary changes during the recent period of fiscal consolidation, from 2010-11 to 2013-14   [PDF]

An update of the Budget 2015 fiscal outlook

The Honourable Scott Brison (Kings‐Hants) and Mr. Nathan Cullen (Skeena‐Bulkley Valley) have submitted requests that the PBO provide an update of the Government’s fiscal projections in Budget 2015 using the Bank of Canada’s outlook in its July Monetary Policy Report. PBO will update its own Economic and Fiscal Outlook in the fall.     [PDF]

Update of PBO’s Tax-Free Savings Account Analysis

TFSA fiscal and distributional effects were examined by the PBO in a February 2015 report. This analysis updates those past PBO estimates for proposed Budget 2015 changes.    [PDF]

Pre-budget Outlook

Projections presented in this report include only fiscal measures that have been announced prior to Budget 2015. PBO will update its economic and fiscal projections for new measures in the 2015 budget and provide related analysis in a future report. Projections presented in this report are based on data up to and including April 10, 2015.    [PDF]