Report Archive

Category : National Finance

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - October 2018 - Revised Oct. 31, 2018

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2018

This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Status Report on Phase 1 of the Investing in Canada Plan

This report a status update on Phase 1 of the Government’s Investing in Canada Plan, which was announced in Budget 2016 and intended to provide a short-term economic boost to the economy.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2018 - Report revised May 14, 2018

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

The Borrowing Authority Act and Measures of Federal Debt

Recent changes to the Financial Administration Act require the Government of Canada to seek parliamentary approval to borrow in debt markets. The Government has done so with the Borrowing Authority Act, which came into force on 23 November 2017.

This report was prepared to address two areas of confusion that have arisen in committees and debates following Budget 2018:

  1. How was this new debt aggregate calculated?
  2. How should it be used to scrutinize government borrowing?

Costing a National Guaranteed Basic Income Using the Ontario Basic Income Model

This report responds to a request of Mr. Pierre Poilievre (Carleton–CPC) to estimate the cost of establishing a guaranteed basic income program at the national level. PBO takes the policy parameters of Ontario’s basic income pilot project and applies them across the country to estimate the cost of a guaranteed basic income (GBI), and then compares the estimated cost to the current federal support for low income. The annual gross cost of expanding the Ontario Basic Income Pilot across the country would amount to an estimated $76.0 billion in 2018-2019. By 2022-2023, it would reach nearly $79.5 billion.

Status Report on Phase 1 of the New Infrastructure Plan

This report provides status report on Phase 1 of the Government’s New Infrastructure Plan, which was announced in Budget 2016 and intended to stimulate economic growth over the short-term.  

 

Federal Financial Support to Provinces and Territories: A Long-term Scenario Analysis

This report provides a long-term scenario analysis of the three largest federal transfers:  Equalization, the Canada Health Transfer and the Canada Social Transfer.

Federal Personnel Spending - Past and future trends

This report examines federal personnel spending, including: (i) recent trends in spending on federal personnel , (ii) PBO’s medium-term forecast for personnel spending  and (iii) analysis of important cost drivers underlying PBO’s personnel forecast.

Budget 2018: Issues for Parliamentarians

To assist parliamentarians in their budget deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2018.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - January 2018

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian gross domestic product in 2017 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2017 18, based on data released since our October 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 12 January 2018.

PBO and Finance Canada Long-term Projection Comparison

This report provides a comparison of long-term economic and fiscal projections prepared by Finance Canada and PBO in 2017.

Analysis of Changes to the Taxation of Corporate Passive Investment Income

On July 18, 2017, the Minister of Finance announced consultations on tax planning strategies involving the use of private corporations.  This report analyzes potential changes to the taxation of corporate passive investment income, one of the policy proposals put forth as part of the consultations. 

Federal Support for Low Income Individuals and Families

Approximately 3.2 million to 5.0 million Canadians have low income.

In 2016, the Government committed to developing a poverty reduction strategy.  To support parliamentarians in their deliberations regarding this strategy, the Parliamentary Budget Officer initiated a census of all existing federal support and services to low income Canadians and vulnerable groups.

Overall, we identified 75 federal initiatives that provide roughly $57 billion of financial support or services to people with low income and other vulnerable groups in 2017-18—55 programs with expenditures of $39.3 billion and 20 tax expenditures that provided $17.5 billion.

Fall Economic Statement 2017: Issues for Parliamentarians

This report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Fall Economic Statement.

Supplementary Estimates (B) 2017-18

This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second supplementary estimates for the 2017-18 fiscal year.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2017

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2017

This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - August 2017

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian gross domestic product in 2017 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016 - 17 and 2017-18, based on data released since our April 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Sensitivity of PBO’s Fiscal Outlook to Economic Shocks

The PBO has prepared sensitivity estimates of our fiscal outlook to three types of economic shocks.  An interactive web application has also been launched, which allows the public to assess how changing certain macroeconomic assumptions for growth and interest rates will affect the PBO fiscal projection. http://www.pbo-dpb.gc.ca/en/fiscal-tool