Category : Economy

Labour Market Assessment 2016

PBO finds that most labour market indicators remain fairly close to their trend levels, except for average hours worked which is below trend. Our analysis suggests that, at the national level, the labour market is currently operating below its sustainable capacity as the demographic transition takes hold.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook October 2016

In response to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Fiscal Sustaintability Report 2016 – Clarification and Additional Information

In response to the 29 June 2016 commentary “Why Canada’s long-term fiscal prospects are not a hot
mess” by A. Yalnizyan (available at:
term-fiscal-prospects-are-not-a-hot-mess/ ), this blog post provides clarification and additional
information related to our 2016 Fiscal Sustainability Report.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2016

This report extends PBO’s medium-term analysis to assess the fiscal sustainability of Canada’s federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2016

This report responds to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion. It incorporates data available up to and including 12 April 2016.

Household Indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability

This report reviews the evolution of household indebtedness in Canada and assesses prospects for household financial vulnerability over the medium term.

An Assessment of the Government’s Fiscal Outlook

PBO’s assessment is that the Government’s outlook for the economy and federal budget over the medium term is optimistic. Based on forecast comparisons and forecast revisions, PBO believes that there is downside risk to the Government’s medium-term outlook for the budgetary balance in the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Labour Market Assessment 2015

The Canadian labour market has generally improved over the past year but there is still underutilization of labour in some regions, sectors and among some groups of workers. 

November 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook

PBO projects a sluggish recovery for the Canadian economy as it adjusts to lower commodity prices and rebalances—shifting away from consumer spending and housing toward exports and business investment. Based on Budget 2015 measures only, PBO projects annual deficits averaging $4.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) over 2016-17 to 2020-21. Federal debt is projected to fall from 31 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 26.2 per cent by 2020-21.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2016 -2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 -2021
Budgetary balance ($ billions) 1.2 -3.0 -4.7 -5.0 -4.6 -4.2
Federal debt ratio (% of GDP) 30.8 29.9 28.8 27.9 27.1 26.2

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2015

This report provides an assessment of the long-term sustainability of government finances for three government sub-sectors: the federal government; subnational governments consisting of provinces, territories, local, and aboriginal governments; and, the Canada and Quebec Pension Plans.    [PDF]