Report Archive

Category : Economy

FSR 2017 – Fiscal projection methodology follow-up

This blog post provides follow-up information related to the long-term fiscal projection methodology used in PBO’s 2017 Fiscal Sustainability Report (FSR) that was published on 5 October 2017

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2017

This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - August 2017

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian gross domestic product in 2017 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016 - 17 and 2017-18, based on data released since our April 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Household Indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability - Recent Developments and Outlook

This report reviews recent developments in household finances and assesses prospects for financial vulnerability over the medium term based on PBO’s April 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Household Formation and the Housing Stock - May 2017 update

This report responds to the 10 May 2017 request by the Honourable Elizabeth Marshall to provide an update of the 13 December 2016 PBO report “Household Formation and the Housing Stock:  A Stock-Flow Perspective”. The report provides updated estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada, as well as an updated medium-term outlook for the housing sector.

A Primer on Public Transit Tax Credit

In response to a request by the Member of Parliament for Carleton, the Honourable Pierre Poilievre, the PBO has prepared a short background primer regarding the potential impacts of eliminating the federal Public Transit Tax Credit.

The Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - A Prospective Analysis

PBO looks at the projected impact on Canada of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Though the agreement is extensive, its impact in aggregate on the Canadian economy is likely to be small in comparison to NAFTA. Nonetheless, for individual sectors the impact could be significant since there are quite a few sectors whose goods currently have tariffs that exceed 10 per cent.

Canada’s trade in services with the European Union will also be affected as a number of non-tariff trade impediments are reduced. Since they are starting from a low level, the dollar change in trade would be relatively small. But as a proportion of existing trade, the change could be notable.

Canada will also extend market exclusivity on existing drugs by about 2 years. This will prevent the entry of cheaper generics into the market, and prolong a stream of royalty and dividend payments to entities outside Canada. It will thus also have a small impact on Canada’s external balance.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2017

This report responds to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion that “consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) mandate to provide independent analysis about the state of Canada’s finances and trends in the national economy (as outlined in section 79.2 of the Parliament of Canada Act), the PBO provide an economic and fiscal outlook to the Committee the fourth week of October and April of every calendar year, and be available to appear before the Committee to discuss its findings shortly thereafter.”

Economic and Fiscal Monitor 2016-17

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian GDP in 2016 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016-17 based on data released since our October 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Household Formation and the Housing Stock: A Stock-Flow Perspective

This report provides estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada, and also attempts to gauge the degree of balance in the housing sector, both for new housing units and for the overall housing stock.

Labour Market Assessment 2016

PBO finds that most labour market indicators remain fairly close to their trend levels, except for average hours worked which is below trend. Our analysis suggests that, at the national level, the labour market is currently operating below its sustainable capacity as the demographic transition takes hold.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook October 2016

In response to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Discussion Documents for Consultation on Renewed Mandate for the Parliamentary Budget Officer

Fiscal Sustaintability Report 2016 – Clarification and Additional Information

In response to the 29 June 2016 commentary “Why Canada’s long-term fiscal prospects are not a hot
mess” by A. Yalnizyan (available at:
term-fiscal-prospects-are-not-a-hot-mess/ ), this blog post provides clarification and additional
information related to our 2016 Fiscal Sustainability Report.

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2016

This report extends PBO’s medium-term analysis to assess the fiscal sustainability of Canada’s federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2016

This report responds to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion. It incorporates data available up to and including 12 April 2016.

Household Indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability

This report reviews the evolution of household indebtedness in Canada and assesses prospects for household financial vulnerability over the medium term.

An Assessment of the Government’s Fiscal Outlook

PBO’s assessment is that the Government’s outlook for the economy and federal budget over the medium term is optimistic. Based on forecast comparisons and forecast revisions, PBO believes that there is downside risk to the Government’s medium-term outlook for the budgetary balance in the fiscal years 2019-20 and 2020-21.

Labour Market Assessment 2015

The Canadian labour market has generally improved over the past year but there is still underutilization of labour in some regions, sectors and among some groups of workers. 

November 2015 Economic and Fiscal Outlook

PBO projects a sluggish recovery for the Canadian economy as it adjusts to lower commodity prices and rebalances—shifting away from consumer spending and housing toward exports and business investment. Based on Budget 2015 measures only, PBO projects annual deficits averaging $4.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) over 2016-17 to 2020-21. Federal debt is projected to fall from 31 per cent of GDP in 2014-15 to 26.2 per cent by 2020-21.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-2016 -2017 -2018 -2019 -2020 -2021
Budgetary balance ($ billions) 1.2 -3.0 -4.7 -5.0 -4.6 -4.2
Federal debt ratio (% of GDP) 30.8 29.9 28.8 27.9 27.1 26.2