Archive: October, 2020

Discretionary Mandatory Minimum Penalties for Murder

This report was prepared at the request of Senator Kim Pate. It estimates the impact of a proposed bill in the Senate, S-207, on sentencing for murder and the cost implications of those changes for the Correctional Service of Canada.

Planned Capital Spending under Strong, Secure, Engaged: 2020 Update

The Government of Canada’s 2017 Defence Policy, Strong, Secure, Engaged (SSE), called for significant increases in funding for the Department of National Defence (DND). In total, the policy projected departmental expenditures of $553 billion over 20 years, beginning in 2016–17. An estimated $164 billion, calculated on a cash basis, was earmarked for the development and acquisition of capital equipment.

The PBO has been monitoring SSE’s planned capital spending with the support of DND. In 2018 the PBO received financial projections for 329 capital projects planned under SSE. This snapshot accounted for all major projects with planned or ongoing spending. In addition, the PBO received updates on planned cash expenditure for 24 projects in July 2019 and 23 projects in June 2020.

Cost Estimate for Bill C-7 “Medical Assistance in Dying”

This report responds to a request from a Senator to estimate the financial cost of Bill C-7, which broadens eligibility for medical assistance in dying.

Carbon pricing for the Paris target: Closing the gap with output-based pricing

This report updates and extends PBO’s analysis of the additional carbon pricing needed to achieve Canada’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target in 2030 under the Paris Agreement.

We provide an updated estimate based on a broad carbon levy and extend our analysis to incorporate additional carbon pricing using an Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS), taking into consideration alternative structures. Estimates of the corresponding impacts on the Canadian economy are also provided.

Estimating the Return of Additional Federal Spending on Business Tax Compliance

This report analyses the relationship between federal spending and additional tax revenues generated through business compliance programs since 2015-16 and estimates how changes in funding might affect future revenues.

Cost estimate of a federal dental care program for uninsured Canadians

In response to a request based on a motion from Mr. Don Davies (Vancouver Kingsway), this report estimates the cost of establishing a Federal dental care program for uninsured Canadians with a total household income below $90,000 as of January 1, 2021.

Tax Free Seniors Benefits

Mr. Ziad Aboultaif M.P. requested the removal of federal income taxes on Canada Pension Plan/Quebec Pension Plan (CPP/QPP) and OAS benefits received by seniors with limited sources of income. The funds to pay for the measure will come from general revenue of the federal government and not from an increase in future CPP/QPP contributions.

PBO estimates this program to cost $268.1 million in 2020-2021 and $1,083.4 million in 2021-2022. The time horizon for this costing is aligned to PBO’s September 29, 2020 Economic and Fiscal Scenario.

The Innovation Superclusters Initiative – A Preliminary Analysis

Budget 2017 earmarked $918 million over five years for the Innovation Superclusters Initiative (ISI). The federal money will assist with the creation of five “superclusters” across Canada, where the public and private sectors will undertake collaborative research. The Government projects that this initiative will lead to the creation of 50,000 jobs, increase GDP by $50 billion over 10 years, and accelerate innovation. 
Federal funding is expected to be matched by contributions from non-federal entities, including the private sector, universities and other levels of government. Non-federal partners have announced $1,087 million over the same five-year period.
Data shared by the Government as of March 6, 2020 indicate that actual spending is lagging the original budget.  The Government originally anticipated that it would have spent $104 million (or 11% of its total budget) by that point. In comparison, only $30 million was spent (29% of the original projection).

Crown corporations’ COVID-19 liquidity support

This report summarizes the federal package of COVID-19 liquidity support programs provided through five federal Crown corporations. PBO estimates total liquidity supports through August 2020, and highlights gaps in publicly-available risk metrics for these supports.