Archive: April, 2019

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2019

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

Costing Budget 2019 Measures

In preparation for the upcoming 2019 federal general election, PBO used the Budget 2019 as an
opportunity to assess its existing capacity to cost a variety of policy initiatives within a limited period.

The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2019-20

This note examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2019-20, which supports the second appropriation bill that will seek Parliament’s approval of $125.7 billion.

Fiscal and Distributional Analysis of the Federal Carbon Pricing System (Revised May 23, 2019)

This report provides a fiscal and distributional analysis of implementing a federal carbon pricing system in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. PBO estimates that the federal government will generate $2.63 billion in carbon pricing revenues in 2019-20. The vast majority of revenues ($2.43 billion) will be generated through the fuel charge; the balance, roughly $197 million, will be generated by output-based pricing. Households will largely bear the cost of the pricing system through their consumption of energy used for residential and transport purposes, and carbon charges embodied in non-energy products.  Regions currently using carbon-intensive energy can expect higher costs.  The federal government has stated that all proceeds from the fuel charges will be returned directly to households and particularly affected sectors in Ontario, New Brunswick, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan. Except for the richest 20%, most households will be better off on a net basis because the amount of the rebate will exceed their average carbon cost.

Cost Estimate for Implementing Structured Intervention Units as set out in Bill C-83 and Related Proposals

Bill C-83 would replace segregation of inmates with structured intervention units (SIUs). SIUs would offer inmates a minimum of two more hours of time out of their cell per day and greater opportunities to participate in correctional interventions. Canada’s 2018 Fall Economic Statement allocated $300 million over six years and $71.7 million ongoing, towards staffing and other resources required to run SIUs. We believe this is an appropriate level of funding for CSC’s expected number of SIUs and associated staffing.

Revisiting the Middle Class Tax Cut

This report provides ex post (after the fact) estimates of the fiscal impact of the middle class tax cut in tax years 2015 and 2016.

Bill C-266: Increasing the duration of parole ineligibility

In February 2016, the Standing Committee on Finance of the House of Commons requested that the PBO provide a detailed and comprehensive costing analysis of private members bills and motions appearing on the Private Member’s Business Order of Precedence. Bill C-266, which increases parole ineligibility for certain offenders, was placed on the Order of Precedence on 1 November 2018. This report provides an estimate of the cost of implementing Bill C-266.

Projecting the Revenue and Expenses of Canada Student Loans Program

This report provides a description of the PBO model and an estimate of the revenues and expenses associated with the direct loans regime of Canada Student Loans Program (CSLP).   

Infrastructure Update: Investments in Territories

The report examines capital investments made by territories with the objective to identify the incremental impact of federal infrastructure funding on their capital spending in 2016-17 and 2017-18.

Cost Estimate of an Increase in the Duration of Employment Insurance (EI) Sickness Benefits

This report provides a cost estimate for a measure that would extend the duration of employment insurance (EI) sickness benefits from 15 weeks to 50 weeks.