Economic and Fiscal Monitor - January 2018

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Economic and Fiscal Monitor -  January 2018.pdf
PBO projects that Canada’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 2.9 per cent in 2017, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than projected in PBO’s October Economic and Fiscal Outlook and Finance Canada’s Fall Economic Statement in October 2017 (Figure 1-1). This downgrade primarily reflects historical revisions (Table 1-1). Growth in the third quarter of 2017 was also weaker than expected.

We project that the Government’s budgetary balance for 2017-18 will be a deficit of $18.5 billion (0.9 per cent of GDP). Our current estimate of the budgetary deficit in 2017-18 is:

  • $1.8 billion lower than our estimate in the October 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.
  • $1.4 billion lower than the Government projected in its 2017 Fall Economic Statement (FES).

The downward revision to PBO’s estimate of the budget deficit reflects a $2.2 billion decrease in our estimate for spending in 2017-18, somewhat offset by a $0.5 billion decrease in our estimate for revenues.

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