Reports

Distributional and Fiscal Analysis of a National Guaranteed Basic Income

Several parliamentarians requested that the PBO prepare a distributional analysis of Guaranteed Basic Income using parameters set out in Ontario’s basic income pilot project, examine the impact across income quintiles, family types and gender, and identify the net federal revenue increase required to offset the net cost of the new program. This analysis also accounts for the behavioural response.

Pre-Budget Outlook

This report updates PBO’s September 2020 Economic and Fiscal Outlook in advance of Budget 2021.

Assessing the Sustainability of the Canada Pension Plan

This report provides a reconciliation of the assessments of the sustainability of the Canada Pension Plan prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary and the Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Canada Infrastructure Bank: Status of investments up to 2020-21 Q3

This blog post is designed to assist parliamentarians in understanding CIB’s capability in identifying and investing in infrastructure projects, consistent with its mandate. We aim to build upon our previous reports on infrastructure spending, with a focus on Canada Infrastructure Bank.

The Government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2021-22

This report examines the federal government’s Expenditure Plan and Main Estimates for 2021-22, which supports the first two appropriation bills that seek Parliament’s approval of $141.9 billion in budgetary authorities.

Update: Cost of Federal Leave for COVID-19

On July 24, 2020 the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) reported on costs incurred from the Government’s policy of allowing employees to use pay code 699 paid leave for other reasons. Guidance from the Treasury Board Secretariat (TBS) allowed for employees to request 699 leave for a variety of reasons including being sick with COVID-19, having to quarantine, not being able to access the technology they need to complete their work, and having to care for dependents.

Cost Estimate of a Hybrid Parliament System

Senator Rosa Galvez requested that the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimate the costs and savings of a hybrid parliamentary system. In such a system, parliamentarians can participate in the proceedings either in person or remotely via videoconference.

This report estimates certain incremental costs (mostly acquisition of IT equipment and increased costs of interpretation services) and the savings (reduction in travel expenses for Senators and Members of the House of Commons that no longer travel to Ottawa to attend in person) of a hybrid parliamentary system.

Review of PBO Economic and Fiscal Projections

This report provides a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the economic and fiscal projections of the PBO and Finance Canada since 2011.

Supplementary Estimates (C) 2020-21

This report presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s third and final supplementary estimates for the 2020-21 fiscal year, which seeks Parliament’s approval of $13.4 billion.

The Cost of Canada’s Surface Combatants: 2021 Update and Options Analysis

In response to a request by the House of Commons Standing Committee on Government Operations and Estimates (OGGO), this report presents a costing analysis of building Canadian Surface Combatants (CSC) with the continuation of the Type 26, as well as the cost for two alternate designs: the FREMM and the Type 31e.

Compensation for the delay and denial of services to First Nations children

This report estimates the financial cost of complying with a Canadian Human Rights Tribunal decision (2019 CHRT 39) as it relates to children who experienced delays and denials of services which should have been available under Jordan’s Principle. A previous report estimated the cost of complying with that decision as it relates to children taken into care.

Urban, Rural, and Northern Indigenous Housing

This report was prepared at the request of the House of Commons Standing Committee on Human Resources, Skills and Social Development and the Status of Persons with Disabilities.

Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Sensitivities

To assist parliamentarians’ deliberations in the context of a post-COVID economic recovery, this blog post summarizes PBO’s estimates of potential impacts of government spending and tax measures on the Canadian economy. We also provide estimates of the sensitivity of the budgetary balance to various types of economic shocks.

Supplementary information on the simplifying the home office expense deduction

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic resulting in many Canadians working from home, the government introduced a simplified flat rate home office expense deduction for the 2020 tax year. This will allow taxpayers to claim deductions up to $400, based on the length of time working from home, without the need to track detailed expenses. This blog post provides supplementary information to the PBO’s Costing Note published on 4 February 2021 on the Simplifying the Home Office Expense Deduction.

Analysis of Federal Debt: 2020-21

The objective of this blog post is to illustrate the increased sensitivity of public debt charges to interest rate shocks and summarize the status of the Government’s plan to borrow at longer maturities.

The Outlook for the EI Operating Account

This blog post highlights the implicit assumptions used in FES 2020 and approximates a 7-year outlook for the EI Operating Account.

Supplementary information on the costing of indexing the maximum per capita payment under the Fiscal Stabilization Program

This blog post provides supplementary information on the qualifying provinces and their respective payments underlying PBO’s 20 January 2021 costing of the Fiscal Stabilization Program (FSP).

Costing Fall Economic Statement 2020 Measures

The federal government’s Fall Economic Statement 2020 (FES 2020) was released on November 30, 2020.  It includes numerous new and extended spending measures and programs.

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO)’s mandate to provide independent, non-partisan analysis to Parliament, the PBO has prepared cost estimates of selected measures contained in the federal government’s FES 2020.

Federal Investments in Palliative Care

After the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) released the cost estimate for Bill C 7 (medical assistance in dying), he was asked to identify federal investments in palliative care made since Canada had legalized medical assistance in dying.

Fall Economic Statement 2020: Issues for Parliamentarians

To assist parliamentarians in their budgetary deliberations, this report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Fall Economic Statement (FES) published on 30 November 2020.