GHG Emissions Projections

To achieve the targets announced in May 2015, Canadian emissions would have to decrease substantially. The magnitude will depend on future GDP growth and the rate of decrease of emissions relative to GDP.

Click on the different scenarios to explore the PBO’s projection of GHG emissions to 2030.

Table 1: Scenario description
Assumptions
Projection
Scenario
GDP growth
Emissions intensity improvement
2030 income per capita
PBO baseline 1.6% 1.6% $61,850
Environment Canada 1.8% 1.1% $63,790
Scenario 1 2.5% 2.1% $71,300
Scenario 2 2.5% 1.6% $71,300
Scenario 3 2.5% 1.1% $71,300
Scenario 4 1.6% 2.1% $61,850
Scenario 5 1.6% 1.1% $61,850

Table 2: History
Year
GDP growth
Emissions intensity improvement
1990-2013 2.4% 1.6%
1995-2013 2.5% 1.9%
1995-2011 2.6% 2.1%