Category : Economy

The Impact of a Pan-Canadian Carbon Pricing Levy on PBO’s GDP Projection

This report provides additional detail related to the economic impact of the carbon pricing levy presented in PBO’s April 2018 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Patent restoration and the cost of pharmaceuticals

This report pulls together a number of databases so as to estimate the cost of recent regulatory changes governing patented pharmaceuticals. It compares the cost of patented innovative medicines with that of non-patented prescription medicines. That comparison is then used to make inferences regarding the annual cost of prolonging market exclusivity for a class of drugs similar to patented innovative medicines.

Costing a National Guaranteed Basic Income Using the Ontario Basic Income Model

This report responds to a request of Mr. Pierre Poilievre (Carleton–CPC) to estimate the cost of establishing a guaranteed basic income program at the national level. PBO takes the policy parameters of Ontario’s basic income pilot project and applies them across the country to estimate the cost of a guaranteed basic income (GBI), and then compares the estimated cost to the current federal support for low income. The annual gross cost of expanding the Ontario Basic Income Pilot across the country would amount to an estimated $76.0 billion in 2018-2019. By 2022-2023, it would reach nearly $79.5 billion.

Status Report on Phase 1 of the New Infrastructure Plan

This report provides status report on Phase 1 of the Government’s New Infrastructure Plan, which was announced in Budget 2016 and intended to stimulate economic growth over the short-term.  


Budget 2018: Issues for Parliamentarians

To assist parliamentarians in their budget deliberations, this report highlights key issues arising from Budget 2018.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - January 2018

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian gross domestic product in 2017 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2017 18, based on data released since our October 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, up to and including 12 January 2018.

PBO and Finance Canada Long-term Projection Comparison

This report provides a comparison of long-term economic and fiscal projections prepared by Finance Canada and PBO in 2017.

Fall Economic Statement 2017: Issues for Parliamentarians

This report identifies key issues arising from the Government’s Fall Economic Statement.

FSR 2017 – Provincial-Territorial Health Care Cost Drivers

The following presents a decomposition of cost drivers for growth in provincial-territorial health care spending.

Supplementary Estimates (B) 2017-18

This note presents a detailed analysis of the Government’s second supplementary estimates for the 2017-18 fiscal year.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook – October 2017

Consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s legislated mandate, this report provides PBO’s economic and fiscal outlook.

FSR 2017 – Fiscal projection methodology follow-up

This blog post provides follow-up information related to the long-term fiscal projection methodology used in PBO’s 2017 Fiscal Sustainability Report (FSR) that was published on 5 October 2017

Fiscal Sustainability Report 2017

This report provides PBO’s assessment of the sustainability of government finances over the long term for the federal government, subnational governments and public pension plans.

Economic and Fiscal Monitor - August 2017

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian gross domestic product in 2017 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016 - 17 and 2017-18, based on data released since our April 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Household Indebtedness and Financial Vulnerability - Recent Developments and Outlook

This report reviews recent developments in household finances and assesses prospects for financial vulnerability over the medium term based on PBO’s April 2017 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

Household Formation and the Housing Stock - May 2017 update

This report responds to the 10 May 2017 request by the Honourable Elizabeth Marshall to provide an update of the 13 December 2016 PBO report “Household Formation and the Housing Stock:  A Stock-Flow Perspective”. The report provides updated estimates of household formation and the housing stock in Canada, as well as an updated medium-term outlook for the housing sector.

A Primer on Public Transit Tax Credit

In response to a request by the Member of Parliament for Carleton, the Honourable Pierre Poilievre, the PBO has prepared a short background primer regarding the potential impacts of eliminating the federal Public Transit Tax Credit.

The Canada-EU Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - A Prospective Analysis

PBO looks at the projected impact on Canada of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA). Though the agreement is extensive, its impact in aggregate on the Canadian economy is likely to be small in comparison to NAFTA. Nonetheless, for individual sectors the impact could be significant since there are quite a few sectors whose goods currently have tariffs that exceed 10 per cent.

Canada’s trade in services with the European Union will also be affected as a number of non-tariff trade impediments are reduced. Since they are starting from a low level, the dollar change in trade would be relatively small. But as a proportion of existing trade, the change could be notable.

Canada will also extend market exclusivity on existing drugs by about 2 years. This will prevent the entry of cheaper generics into the market, and prolong a stream of royalty and dividend payments to entities outside Canada. It will thus also have a small impact on Canada’s external balance.

Economic and Fiscal Outlook - April 2017

This report responds to the 4 February 2016 Standing Committee on Finance motion that “consistent with the Parliamentary Budget Office (PBO) mandate to provide independent analysis about the state of Canada’s finances and trends in the national economy (as outlined in section 79.2 of the Parliament of Canada Act), the PBO provide an economic and fiscal outlook to the Committee the fourth week of October and April of every calendar year, and be available to appear before the Committee to discuss its findings shortly thereafter.”

Economic and Fiscal Monitor 2016-17

This report provides an in-year estimate of Canadian GDP in 2016 and the Government of Canada’s budgetary balance in 2016-17 based on data released since our October 2016 Economic and Fiscal Outlook.






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